The Most likely Draft Day Trades of Day 1
The Atlanta Falcons trade out of #4
The Atlanta Falcons have to be extremely pleased with their positioning in the draft as they are in range for one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the draft as well as one of the premier can't miss talents in the draft. The Atlanta Falcons are going to be the first team on everyone's board to look at when it comes to trading out of the top 5 as none of the top talents in the draft actually solve a problem of theirs as a team. Kyle Pitts is regarded as the best offensive weapon in the draft, even the best overall player by some, and he would make the Atlanta Falcons offense unstoppable as well as make them a competitive team in the NFC South with Tampa Bay the favorite to be in the Super Bowl. Atlanta needs offensive lineman but mainly in the interior as they have Jake Matthews signed long term and Kaleb McGary is still developing and getting a lineman at #4 could be a reach. There are many quarterback needy teams in the draft that have reportedly made their offers to Atlanta and it would almost be like shopping in a Candy store for Arthur Smith and company when it comes trading back. I would be shocked if Atlanta doesn't trade out of #4 in the draft with the amount of interest they have for their spot and with the amount of picks they could get for #4 they could rebuild a fledgling defense that has been crumbling for years. It's going to net them at least three 1st round picks and some change, a deal that will be too good to pass on.
The Miami Dolphins Trade out of #6
The Miami Dolphins have been on the move since late March going from #3 to #12 after trading with the 49ers and then trading back into the Top 10 at #6 after Philadelphia lost out to the 49ers and traded out of the Top 10 to #12 and now Miami appears to be on the move again with rumors that they want to trade out again to a quarterback needy team. The Dolphins could certainly do that and for the next 2-3 years own multiple 1st round picks and if they think Tua Tagovailoa isn't their future, they have more than enough draft capital to move up and draft their franchise quarterback. In my opinion, the Miami Dolphins would be wise to stay put and draft Kyle Pitts, he's easily the best player available and fills a need for them, if he's on the board as I don't think a team is going to be trading up to #6 if the Falcons trade out. If Pitts is gone, then I would be looking for deals as there are a handful of teams willing to give up a king's ransom to get one of the Top 5 quarterbacks and based on all reports so far, teams are clamoring to move. The Dolphins may stick with #6 and grab an offensive player or move back, either way they will have won Day 1 with their savvy trading pre-draft.
Carolina Panthers move out of Top 10
By trading for former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have now moved out of the race for one of the Top 5 quarterbacks and it's been reported by many that Carolina plans on moving back in the draft, a move that would set the organization up very nicely for the next few years. Carolina is one of the few teams in the Top 10 that is better than their draft positioning would suggest considering that they are in the same division as some of the most potent offenses in the NFL with the Bucs and Falcons, and potentially Saints once their quarterback situation is handled. Trading out of the Top 10 would give the Panthers at least two 1st round picks with some change and it would help Head Coach Matt Rhule rebuild the team around his newly acquired quarterback. Now they could easily stay put as well because while some teams have the luxury, or detriment as some would say, of not having a need worth a Top 10 selection the Panthers on the other hand have more than few options that would be worthy picks at #8. The Panthers need defense and Micah Parsons would be the perfect fit here. He's a freak athlete at the linebacker position and would be a great fit to both rush the passer and stuff the run. The Panthers could also use quality offensive tackle and they will have a shot at grabbing one of the two elite level offensive lineman in the draft with Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater likely to be available. The Panthers should trade out if there is more than one quarterback on the board but stay put if Slater and/or Sewell is available. The Panthers should go into this draft with the mindset of getting Sam Darnold a supporting cast and whether it be drafting a premier offensive tackle or getting more picks to surround him with players, either way would benefit Darnold.
The Denver Broncos Trades up from #9
It's no secret that Denver isn't happy with Drew Lock and are actively looking for his replacement in 2021 or 2022 and Denver would be wise to do so with the talent that they are within reach of grabbing. The Broncos have been looking for a quarterback since Peyton Manning left and they have certainly been active when it comes to grabbing guys in the draft, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, and Drew Lock to name just a few, and it's been reported that if Trey Lance or Justin Fields is on the board, the Broncos are going to take one of them as they love them both equally. But if 4 quarterbacks are off the board expect Denver to be making calls in the draft to move up because once one is left it will become a major bidding war for the last guy, especially with many teams in the Top 10 wanting to move back and grab picks. Denver could sit and wait if one or two of their guys are available but it's risky and even if they say that they will take either Lance or Fields, that's assuming that Mac Jones is picked by the 49ers, it's smokescreen season and there is absolutely no way that Denver doesn't have a favorite of the two because that would be hilariously irresponsible on there part. Denver knows who their guy is, many believe it to be Lance, and if they want to make sure that they can grab him it would be wise for them to trade up. They hold a Top 10 selection in an offense heavy draft and the Falcons and Dolphins would certainly value their 9th overall selection over any other pick in the draft as it keeps both teams in the range for elite level talent on defense and offensive lineman. Denver is playing a risky game of chicken with the rest of the Top 10 when it comes to quarterbacks on the board.
The New England Patriots Trades into the Top 10
The New England Patriots have never drafted a quarterback in the 1st round since Drew Bledsoe and Bill Belichick has never drafted a quarterback in the 1st round in his entire tenure with the Patriots and if I am Bill Belichick, I am trading up as high as a I can to grab my guy which is likely going to require either the Falcons #4 or the Dolphins #6 in order to make sure they have their man. Bill Belichick might be on the hot seat if he doesn't grab a quarterback in the draft as Cam Newton isn't to take them to any promised land in 2021. Getting a Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or even a Mac Jones would certainly give Patriot fans hope for the 2021 season and beyond they potentially have Tom Brady's replacement. The New England Patriots have been linked with trading up in the draft almost universally and many consider it to be a must for them to move up. There's no way that any of the top quarterbacks in the draft fall to #15 and the amount of picks New England would have to give up to grab one of those guys is enormous.
The Dallas Cowboys trade Out of #10
The Dallas Cowboys have no need for a quarterback, offensive lineman, or receiver in this draft as they are very much focused on improving the defense for 2021 and with the potential for top 5 quarterback quarterback in the draft to fall to them at #10. Expect them to be looking to move back a little bit in the draft. The elite defensive talent will still be available if the Dallas Cowboys plan a few spots back and getting more picks to improve the defense is a necessity for this team. There have been reports that Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys is in love with Kyle Pitts but every reporter and analyst insists that the Dallas Cowboys do not plan on trading up in the draft. The Dallas Cowboys should stay put and grab one of the top two cornerback prospects in the draft in Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn as their need for defense trumps their need to build up draft capital. Unless a team offers them a stupid amount of picks for #10, they should just make a pick as there is no need to move.
Recency bias will play key role in the 2021 NFL Draft
The 2020 season was like no other for College Football and the 2021 draft will be equally different with one of the biggest differences being how NFL draft prospects will be graded and scouted. One of the biggest changes that happened in 2020 was that many of the top NFL draft prospects such as Micah Parsons and Caleb Farley, opted out before playing a snap in 2020 which begs the question: How will not playing in 2020 affect their draft stock? While every prospect's situation is different, one thing that will likely play a role for them is recency bias because if scouts didn't see you last season, it's hard for them to remember you. Let's take Micah Parsons for an example; he was regarded as one of the best defenders in the draft by quite a lot and now he finds himself falling down draft boards around the league. And why is that? His opting out of 2020 was after playing only one season for Penn State and while he clearly showed incredible potential, scouts are falling off his band wagon and onto linebacker Zaven Collins, the current Bronko Nagurski award winner, who showed out for the University of Tulsa. Gregory Rousseau is another prospect that has seen his stock fluctuate as of late. In August of 2020, you would have been hard pressed to find a pass rusher as highly regarded as him, but after opting out in 2020, he has seen others chip away at his stock. Kwity Paye, a freaky defensive lineman from the University of Michigan, has seen his stock skyrocket while only playing just 4 games in 2020 and many scouts have him being the first defensive lineman/pass rusher off the board despite lacking the production and intangibles of Gregory Rousseau. And Kwity Paye isn't the only pass rusher layer getting major love from scouts with Joseph Ossai, Azzez Ojulari, and Jaelen Phillips all getting 1st round attention and each climbing up boards. Even one of the most complete prospects in the draft Penei Sewell found himself falling down boards after opting out for 2020 season and has since seen both Christian Darrisaw and Rashawn Slater take his place as the best offensive line prospect in the draft.
So what does this mean for the teams in this draft? What it means is that there are going to be a great deal of surprises in this draft with lots of reaches and lots of steals because recency bias is going to take control of a lot of war rooms. There are too many players in this draft that didn't play in 2020 for teams to wipe them off their boards, with this sheep-think league in the offseason, it's likely to unnecessarily hurt draft stocks. Let's take Penei Sewell for example whom many said before the 2020 season was the best offensive line prospect to come out of college in over a decade, however Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw played in 2020 to their credit in Sewell's absence. And if scouts are watching your compatriots succeed tremendously a lot of them will forget how good you are until they put on the tape, no matter how good you are.
If your a team in the bottom half of the NFL draft, you could be swimming in potential top 10 talent as they fall down the draft and while I don't a Sewell, Rousseau, or Parsons are going to fall I can't be 100% sure given how the NFL can be when teams see another team looking at something and jump the gun for fear of missing out. This draft is shaking up to be one of the most interesting offseason events in NFL history and I would love to see which teams can't keep their cool under pressure.
So what does this mean for the teams in this draft? What it means is that there are going to be a great deal of surprises in this draft with lots of reaches and lots of steals because recency bias is going to take control of a lot of war rooms. There are too many players in this draft that didn't play in 2020 for teams to wipe them off their boards, with this sheep-think league in the offseason, it's likely to unnecessarily hurt draft stocks. Let's take Penei Sewell for example whom many said before the 2020 season was the best offensive line prospect to come out of college in over a decade, however Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw played in 2020 to their credit in Sewell's absence. And if scouts are watching your compatriots succeed tremendously a lot of them will forget how good you are until they put on the tape, no matter how good you are.
If your a team in the bottom half of the NFL draft, you could be swimming in potential top 10 talent as they fall down the draft and while I don't a Sewell, Rousseau, or Parsons are going to fall I can't be 100% sure given how the NFL can be when teams see another team looking at something and jump the gun for fear of missing out. This draft is shaking up to be one of the most interesting offseason events in NFL history and I would love to see which teams can't keep their cool under pressure.
